FOOD SHORTAGES IN ZIMBABWE: THE FACTS


Drought and the disruption of commerical farmng caused by land acquisition activivities has left more than five million Zimbabweans at risk of starvation.

• Zimbabwe is facing an immediate, serious food crisis. Unless sufficient food can be imported, and the poorest people can access it, severe malnutrition and death caused by hunger will occur in the coming months.
  
  
• From June, more than 5 million people will need food aid, increasing to 6.1 million from December ( 4.4 million people in communal and resettled rural areas, 850,000 in urban areas plus 825,000 farm workers).
  
  
• The extremely poor main season has been caused by a severe drought between Jan-April (Zimbabwe's longest dry spell in 20 years and its fifth worst drought in a century) in most parts of the country, and the disruption to the commercial farming sector due to land acquisition activities. Abnormally high rainfall preceded the dry spell.
  
  
• Cereal production is estimated at 670,000 metric tonnes, a drastic 57 percent drop from last year's already poor harvest and 67 percent less than 1999-2000.
  
  
• Maize production is estimated at 480,000 tonnes, 67 percent less than last year and 77 percent less than 1999-2000.
  
  
• Cereal import requirements for this coming year are a staggering 1,869 million tonnes, of which maize makes up 1,705 million tonnes.
  
  
• The area planted to cereals actually increased by 9 percent over last year, with maize increasing by 14 percent, mainly due to expansion in the communal and resettled areas.
  
  However the area of maize planted by large-scale commercial farmers declined again from 74,000 hectares in 2001 to an estimated 61,800 ha. Significantly, this latter figure is 62 percent lower than in 1999-2000.

Zimbabwe is facing a serious food crisis.... unless international food assistance is provided urgently and adequately, there will be a famine
FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission, May 2002

Given the vastly greater yield potential of the large-scale commercial sector, which normally produces one-third of the total cereals, the decrease in the area planted has a significant adverse impact on national food production.

• Commerical farming operations were disrupted by the ongoing land reform activities and widespread illegal invasions.
  
  
• With anticipated Government maize imports of 300,000 tonnes, and current food aid pledges of 60,000 tonnes, a cereal gap of 1.497 million tonnes remains, of which the maize deficit is 1.345 million tonnes.
  
  Some 852,000 tonnes of food needs to be covered by the commercial (private and Government) sector.
  
  
• If neither the Government of Zimbabwe nor the private sectors are able to provide large quantities of food to the markets, and, if food aid does not arrive in the quantities needed and at the right time, the national food crisis could evolve into a famine.
  
  
• Food supply and food access this year are much worse compared to the 1992/93 drought mainly because there are no carry-over maize stocks. "Furthermore, the ability of the Government to import is extremely low and there is little donor interest at the present time" said the Mission.
  
  
• Production of winter wheat being planted now is also forecast to fall sharply as it is almost exclusively grown on large-scale commercial farms.
  
  
• Farmers have been reluctant to plant crops for which there were low returns last year.
  
  
• Agriculture is one of the most important sectors of the economy, providing more than half the country's employment and about 20 percent of the GDP. It also provides 40 percent of foreign exchange earnings.
  
  
• Insufficient foreign exchange reserves (currently a meager $65 million, about half a month's imports) leave private sector imports and food aid as the only options to fill the cereal gap.
  
  
• Serious anomalies in the currency exchange rate exacerbate hard currency shortages.
  
  
• Steep reductions in tobacco and cotton production and export limit the Government's ability to import maize.
  
  Also, there are competing claims on available very limited foreign exchange by critically needed import of fuel and electricity, and foreign debt servicing.
  

THE UNFOLDING CRISIS

• At the peak of the crisis, approximately 6.07 million people will need food aid, according to the FAO/WFP mission, for whom 705,000 metric tonnes of cereals plus other commodities are required.
  
  The crisis looms large and will seriously affect many more than the 6.1 million most vulnerable people.
  
  
• The situation is desperate, even at this time shortly after the harvest.
  
  It will turn into a grave crisis in the next few months with tragic consequences unless rapid and adequate response is made.
  
  
• People worst affected are vulnerable rural populations in chronically food deficit areas of the south, west and extreme north of the country; the urban poor who are entirely dependent on the market for food, and unemployed commercial farm worker families.
  
  
• The food shortage is virtually universal throughout the country; targeting of any forthcoming food supplies will be an extremely difficult task.
  
  
• On top of the people requiring food aid, millions more who have the means to buy food are increasingly unable to do so because of a shortage of grain in the markets, even at this harvest time, and quickly rising prices.
  
  This food availability crisis is largely due to a combination of the Grain Marketing Board (Government of Zimbabwe's) monopoly on grain imports, grain retail price controls and grain movement restrictions, that have effectively eliminated incentives to move grain stocks to markets.
  
  
• Some supplies are available in certain areas but at three-four times the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) price. GMB Harare reported that against the need of 5,000 metric tonnes of maize per day, it was only able to distribute between 400 and 2,000 tonnes a day.
  
  
• Private sector imports would require the removal of the GMB monopoly on the import of maize, maize meal and wheat, the removal of Government price controls to allow these products to be sold at prices reflecting the import cost, and removal of all restrictions on grain movement inside the country. Some consumer subsidy scheme might have to be introduced.
  
  
• Substantial and widespread late rains in late March and April gave an unexpected boost to grazing and water availability. Large scale de-stocking was reported by the commercial sector, with beef cattle declining from 500,000 in March 1999 to estimated 282,000 now. This will have profound effects on the beef export sector.
  
  
• Use of cereals and cereal by-products for animal feed will be very limited due to the lack of grain.
  
  
• Livestock condition is generally good, but prices have already fallen, and will plummet as distress sales increase and demand dwindles.